Recession?

[scribe]

Usually I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the broad spectrum of news outlets always hawking and provoking with the threat of recession. But today I noticed something that was a bit alarming. Yes, I live in NYC and I believe the city tends to be a bit more insulated from some of the ups and downs of the greater American economy. Much of the city runs on global moneys moving into and out of the city with hands along the way taking a piece of it. Real estate and business has always found a way to keep from sinking too much, too quickly as examples.

But today, I was working in a building that has 150+ units. The building superintendent asked if I was busy to which I replied that I was. He said I was lucky and went on to tell me no one has gotten any work done in the building for 3 months. That I was the only company working in the building for any of the past 3 months. He went on to say that other companies were dropping their cards off at the front desk and his office to put themselves out for work. He is a bit older and admitted he hadn't ever seen anything like it. Not only are guys not working but apartments are not selling....which is often the motivating factor for getting work done.

It was stunning to me that building with that many units would sit stagnant for so long. People simply aren't moving their properties and are not spending. At least on a micro level this is the case. Canary in a coal mine has died in this building.
_________________

[tfm]

Recession? I'd say yes. Writing off billions isn't good for stock values. But the more related issue is how the current economics affects our hobby. I've had some auctions up for the past couple of weeks and they're not doing too hot. I'm basically getting my money back with a little extra here and there. The number of bidders is way down. I just won three auctions from one our members and they should have went much higher, especially the Jordison stuff since they're obscure printings. I'll keep listing stuff for awhile because I need the shelf space, but now's the time to be buying because the competition is off. There's no question about it. Rares will still do ok, but that's a function of their collectibility.

. . . and as for building things, our town, Grand Junction, is one of the hottest real estate and construction markets in the country. Every contractor who's not in jail has a job. Trucking companies are offering signing bonuses just to get people in the door. We're also one of the top retirement and outdoor destinations in the country. The mountain bikers and climbers are all over here. The cost of living being so much less than metro locations coupled with the better wages has turned our town into a Mecca. It will level off eventually, obviously, but not anytime soon.
_________________
"This is cool."

[scribe]

It is interesting to note the effect it will have on the hobby. I think the mini recession we experienced shortly after 2000ish didn't really touch the hobby at all. I think a deep recession or worse probably would a bit more with the more highly collectible items. Afterall, gaming is something that can pass quite a bit of time in an entertaining way should we find outselves scratching for cash.

What worries me about this downturn in the economy is that it is coming on during an election year. Usually there is lots more optimism with a new administration. Additionally, I don't think there is another example in history where war and recession/depression go hand and hand.

I continue to get lots of inquiries for additional work. So far, there isn't a letdown for me. I do remember coming out of college trying to make it as an artist during the very early 90s in the middle of our last substantial recession. That really sucked and forced me into the home improvement business to make the rent.
_________________

[tfm]

I have no doubt that the current economy is affecting people. There is no choice between gas and a module, let's say. What people spend on collecting is disposable income and there will be less of that as things get tighter. In my opinion the worst thing to come out of this downturn are all of the foreclosures--people losing their homes. There have been a collector or two in our circle that have needed money to get a foothold or stay afloat and I've bought stuff from them at very good prices to help out. I really hope that no one we know loses their shirt or their job. The layoffs are already starting in the financial sector. That will domino throughout the rest of the economy. Those out there who have credit card debt should do everything they can to get that elephant paid off.
_________________
"This is cool."

[OolEurts]

I'm glad those Jordison games went to a good home, but was also surprised by the relatively low final bids. They sure had a lot of watchers and I thought they'd top $100 but I guess you never know...
Perhaps all things LotR are also in decline with the movies becoming a distant memory.

[tfm]

Yeah, they should have went for more. I'll shoot you a little more if you want. I noticed that Frank's auctions awhile back weren't doing so hot either. That wargames set I picked up would have went for a lot more if people knew what was in there. Jon (increment) had some idea, I think, but he was the only one. It's got to be tough for those who depend on ebay for a little extra green. I guess ebay is changing their listing policies, so maybe that will stimulate things a bit.
_________________
"This is cool."

[beasterbrook]